Will Dion Lewis Will Run For The Heisman In 2010?
Jul 15, 2010 - Entering 2010, Penn State, Pitt and West Virginia all have players they hope can have special seasons, carry their teams and, at the end of the year, be in the running for the Heisman Trophy. Evan Royster, Dion Lewis and Noel Devine have all positioned themselves well for runs at college football's most enduring symbol of greatness. Over the course of the week, we've looked at each running back, how he's positioned now, what he needs to do to keep himself and a prediction of what might ultimately happen. Today, SB Nation writer Anson Whaley takes a look at Dion Lewis.
What has Lewis done to put himself in the Heisman discussion to this point?
Lewis' 2009 record-breaking season catapulted him to superstar status. He rushed for 1,799 yards, breaking the freshman record of 1,686 by Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett, Pitt's best player of all time. Lewis' 18 touchdowns also broke Lesean McCoy's record of 14 set in 2007. Lewis was a workhorse last year, carrying the ball 325 times, good for second most in the nation. Since Toby Gerhart and Ryan Matthews are now in the pros, Lewis is college football's top returning rusher in terms of yards. With a first-year quarterback, Tino Sunseri, at the helm this year, Lewis will be expected to again shoulder the load and will get a chance to put up similar numbers this season.
What does your player need to do to win the Heisman?
Lewis will need to again put up monster numbers and likely will need to lead the nation in rushing. To do that, he'll need to stay healthy and figure out how to work behind a retooled offensive line. Part of the equation, however, will depend on Pitt. The team will need to have success to keep the nation's spotlight on Lewis, and if Pitt falters early, it could cost him. The voters are impressed by big numbers, and Lewis will want to make sure he gets into the end zone when Pitt is down at the goal line to rack up touchdowns.
What might keep Lewis from winning the Heisman?
Other than injury, the factor most likely to keep Lewis from winning is Pitt's record. If the Panthers lose too many games, voters might look to stars on better teams. I think Lewis can stay in the hunt with two or maybe even three losses. Remember, Larry Fitzgerald finished second in 2003 when Pitt lost five times.
Alternatively, if Pitt jumps out to big leads against teams early, Lewis will likely be rested. Panther fans saw an example of that several times last year when Lewis averaged 25 carries per game, but only rushed 20 times in a 38-3 win over Youngstown State, 21 times in a 31-10 win over Louisville, and 18 times in a 37-10 victory over Syracuse.
To a lesser degree, Lewis could also be hurt by the presence of fellow Pitt running back Ray Graham. Graham would start for many D-I teams, and Wannstedt will surely give him some carries this year. Last season, he received 61 carries and that number could have been higher if not for some fumbling issues. Graham will get his share of looks this season and that might hurt Lewis in the long run.
Finally, Lewis will need to deal with a new quarterback and a new offensive line.
Predictions
In order to have a shot at winning the Heisman, Lewis needs to stay healthy, Pitt needs to succeed, and Sunseri needs to make the passing game a viable threat. In addition, the offensive line will feature three new starters, and defenses will focus on Lewis even more this season. When it's all said and done, I expect Lewis to be a finalist this year in New York at the Heisman presentation, but guaranteeing a player will win the award before the season has even started is a bit foolish. I'll place his chances at somewhere between 30 percent - 40 percent to bring home the trophy.
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Great post Anson
This runaway “OMG DION IS WINNING THE HEISMAN” stuff is getting out of control, and it’s only July.
The Heisman is a team award as much as anything else, and I just don’t think Dion has the team in place around him to do at, at least not this year. With a green QB and younger line, you’d have to think his numbers are due for a dip regardless of how good he is individually. Consider that and the nearly 0% chance Pitt has at playing for a national title after the Cincinnati Massacre last year in the Sugar Bowl, and I just don’t think it’s in the cards.
He’s going to have to be insane to make it happen, but considering the things he did last year, he may just do it.
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 15, 2010 11:57 PM EDT reply actions
why would cincy losing last year???
Why would Cincy’s loss last year have anything do with who wins the heisman this year? If Pitt goes undefeated they are pretty much guaranteed to be in the national title game if there is only 1 other undeafted team. I do not seeing it happening but Pitt has a top 5 OOC schedule in the country… This is why Pitt does not need PSU on their schedule… Pitt schedules tough OOC games every year. They have Utah at Utah, ND at Notre Dame and Miami at home…. If they win those 3 games and find a way to win out in the BE, they are in the national title game… Unlike PSU last year, PSU could have gone undefeated and a 1 loss team would have went to the National title game over them because their OOC schedule is such a joke….
by bradical187 on Jul 16, 2010 12:12 PM EDT reply actions
The Big East stinks bro
If you think Utah and Notre Dame are going to save Pitt from the fact that the Big East was exposed for the fraud it is last year, you’re sorely mistaken.
West Virginia is the only Big East football school that has proven it can routinely handle legitimate BCS competition, and even it was embarrassed last year by Bobbah and the boys. Put that together with the Sugar Bowl disaster, and right now the Big East is so far down in the national consciousness it’s not even funny.
Dion Lewis is going to have to overcome all of that to win the Heisman, and it’s going to take ridiculous numbers to do that.
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Will all come down to Pitt
It will all come down to Pitt and how the team performs. If they can go undefeated, which they almost assuredly won’t, voters won’t ignore a team that would play for a title (and assuming there weren’t two other undefeateds, they would do that with non-conference games against Miami, Utah, and Notre Dame).
Bottom line is that Lewis probably cannot afford Pitt to lose more than two games for him to win the Heisman. There will be better teams (even if Pitt only has two losses) and Pitt does not carry the same recognition as other programs that have won more recently.
But if Lewis can manage to put up the same numbers he did last season and Pitt goes 10-2 or better, he’ll have a look at it.
by Anson Whaley on Jul 16, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
10-2?
I don’t know…far too often these days it seems like you have to be in the MNC race to even be considered. Whether you and I agree with it, 1,500 yards for Mark Ingram > 2,000 for Dion Lewis if Alabama is in the chase and Pitt isn’t
It’s not fair, and I don’t like it, but I guess that’s reality you know?
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
I agree, with the whole imbalance thing, but other players have overcome it in rare instances…i.e. Larry Fitzgerald finishing second on an 8-5 team. One thing I failed to mention is of course what other players do. That will be a big factor and anyway you look at it, Lewis has his work cut out for him.
by Anson Whaley on Jul 16, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The Notre Dame name is not nearly as strong as it used to be.
Scheduling ND in 2010 is the same as scheduling Temple in 2010, and I’d take Temple in a head-to-head matchup 9 times out of 10 going into this season.
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 16, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
That's an easy choice.
Notre Dame is downright awful, and Temple is on the up-and-up. Brian Kelly may turn them around, but look at the trouble RichRod is having at Michigan.
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 16, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Temple is on the up-and-up
…because it’s in the MAC.
I’m hopeful they’ll go from being the but of PSU OOC schedule jokes to something respectable, but let’s hold our horses her. Notre Dame > Temple.
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That's history talking.
There’s no way to settle this argument, but I think Notre Dame is the pits. And it will show on the field this year.
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 16, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
When Notre Dame hosts Bowling Green
You give me a call.
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not defending ALL MAC teams. Just one in particular.
Remember that East Carolina run a few years back? Or Central Michigans old dominance? Those teams could have easily handled last years Notre Dame team. And now its Temple. We can revisit this debate at the end of the year if you’d like,
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 16, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
only a PSU fan would say that… even most PSU fans would laugh at that…. You my friend are in La-La land….
by bradical187 on Jul 16, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
if psu played notre dame every year...
and pitt palyed temple… i would love to see your argumnet then! it would be, are you serious? pitt plays temple??? what a joke… Have you ever been to southbend for a game? where you at heinz filed last year when notre dame came to pittsburgh? they still have a lot of buzz! its hard to go into southbend and win… they have great fans… also, Pitt’s OOC schedule is in the top 5 cuz it takes into consideration that Utah game is on the road, ND is on the road…. W/ Miami at home…. They have 1 cupcake game, which is allowed… more than 1, does the team more harm than good….
by bradical187 on Jul 16, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
My point is that this current Notre Dame team is awful.
Those that play ND get a bump in OOC street cred because their name carries historical weight. But if I showed you two sets of statisitics without labeling them with teams, and one was Temple (or any number of “less than stellar historically” teams) and the other was Notre Dame over the past couple of years, you’d be surprised.
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 16, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Allow me to elaborate.
I looked at the winning percentages over the last four years (an arbitrary number, for sure, but it also coincides roughly with Charlie Weis’ arrival in South Bend (which was actually 2005), Al Golden’s arrival in Philly, and is also the earliest time that anyone on today’s teams could have started with a redshirt). The data:
For shiggles: Penn State is 9th (.770 win %) and Pitt is 41st (.600 win %)
Notre Dame: 59th (.520 win %)
Temple: 87th (.387 win %)
Sure, Temple is worse over those four years. But the following are a list of teams that place HIGHER on the list than Notre Dame: Ohio U., Western Michigan, Middle Tennessee State, Nevada-Reno, Air Force, East Carolina, Troy, Navy, Central Michigan.
Notre Dame’s only strength is its name (Titanic quote reference: “Your father left us with nothing but bad debt hidden by a good name.”)
Finally, over the past two years (to make the data more recent and to allow for each of the coaches to get “their players” into the system), the data show:
Notre Dame: 56th
Temple: 50th
Penn State: 8th
Pitt: 19th
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 17, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
So...
That’s your argument? The two best teams in the country last year played in the SEC… Bama and Florida… Cincy did get crushed but there was some misfortune there as well for that Cincy team. When OSU was exposed in 2007 and completely emabarassed by Florida, did that give PSU any less of a chance of making a title run in 2008? If Pitt does not beat WVU that year, WVU is national champions… Jus cuz the Big 10 has a better brand name, makes more money, and gets better bowls… Does not mean their product is better… Typically, if the b10 is running on all cyclinders, their product is better… But it has not been for awhile now… Cincy was just as good as OSU last year (eitehr team could have beat each other)… The BE is an 8 team league, and CUSE is the worst team in the BE. CUSE beat Northwestern and took Minnesota to OT. Cincy, WVU and Pitt and could hang with OSU, PSU and Iowa any day last year… When Michigan, illinois and MSU get their acts together than you can say the Big 10’s product is better… With all that said, I would love for Pitt to be in the Big 10 tho… why? more money and better bowls!
by bradical187 on Jul 16, 2010 2:40 PM EDT reply actions
And to Expand a Little
If Pitt went undefeated and there were not two other undefeateds, they would likely play for the title…except for maybe over a one-loss SEC team. WVU proved that in 2007 when they were all set to go to the championship game even with one loss before Pitt derailed that chance.
The Big East is weak, but I’m not sure how much weaker it is than the ACC, if at all. And I have no doubt that an undefeated Big East team with a quality schedule would go to the title over a one-loss Big Ten or even Big 12 team. If Pitt can go on the road at Utah and win, go on the road against Notre Dame (who admittedly is down) and win, and win at home against Miami, that is a much more difficult non-conference schedule than many teams play.
Pitt has virtually no chance at going undefeated. But if they did, with a Heisman candidate at RB, one of the best WRs in the country, and one of the top defenses in the country, I think it would be incredibly difficult to keep them out of the title game in favor of one-loss teams.
by Anson Whaley on Jul 16, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't see it man
If theoretically, Pitt is undefeated and Penn State is 11-1 with wins over two of Alabama, Ohio State and Iowa I think it’s a lot closer a decision than you might think.
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
OK
Yes. Penn State finished the regular season in 2008 8th in the BCS at 11-1 and not remotely in the title game discussion. If Ohio State wins, or even plays well in either of the two national championship games it crapped the bed in, Penn State is at least in the discussion with everyone else that year. Instead, it was an afterthought, for good reason.
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
also...
psu lost their game at the end of the season… If a 1 loss team wants a shot at the title game… the 1 loss is usually at the beginning of the season….
by bradical187 on Jul 16, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Very true
Still though, no real reason to drop a team as dominant as that ‘08 squad was so far for one loss. Florida lost to Ole Miss at home. Penn State lost at Kinnick. If anything, PSU’s loss was less embarrassing than Florida’s. The separation came from conference perception, something OSU really screwed up in wilting under the big lights.
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
i can see your point there
by bradical187 on Jul 16, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
The point is
OSU hopelessly screwed all of the Big Ten for years.
Penn State is 4-1 in the last five years in bowl games with two wins over the SEC and one over the Big XII and has beaten every OOC BCS opponent they’ve played in that time including South Florida, Cincinnati, Oregon State, and Syracuse.
What else can you do to enhance the reputation of the conference? OSU lost the visible games and hurt teams like Penn State in 2008.
Cincinnati loss could have a similar effect on the Big East.
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
but also in 2008
playing teams like Costal Carolina, Temple, and CUSE did not help them either… The big OCC opponent was Oregon St… which is good but you need at least 3 teams like that and that 1 loss does not take PSU down to #8… PSU fans say thngs like playing Pitt can only help Pitt but this is a case where it would help PSU… Pitt finished in the top 15 last year and the program is moving in the right direction…
by bradical187 on Jul 16, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
And we're back to Pitt playing Penn State...
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by Adam Bittner on Jul 16, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Florida 41... OSU 14
thats fraud
by bradical187 on Jul 16, 2010 2:53 PM EDT reply actions
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