For whatever it’s worth, AccuScore says the Pittsburgh Steelers are big favorites against the New York Jets. The Jets have a 9-4 record, but were blown out badly two weeks ago against the Patriots two weeks ago and lost to the Dolphins last week, scoring a combined total of nine points in the process. Their offense, led by quarterback Mark Sanchez, appears to be in free fall, and AccuScore’s simulations reflect that:
AccuScore’s 10,000 computer simulations give the Jets just a 22 percent chance to win at Heinz Field. The Steelers won them by an average of 10 points …
A month ago, when AccuScore experimented to see how some of the elite teams would fare against each other, the Jets won 44 percent of the simulations against the Steelers. The Jets have spiraled downward.
In this week’s sims, Sanchez completed just 50 percent of his throws and averaged a 64 passer rating. He threw a touchdown pass in only 52 percent of the games.
AccuScore’s simulations showed that the Jets won a majority of the time when Sanchez was effective and LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene put up 100 yards or more combined. But Sanchez hasn’t been effective and the Steelers have the best rushing defense in the sport, so neither of those things seem likely.
The oddsmakers say the Steelers are six-point favorites. That doesn’t seem ridiculous, given the number of close games the Steelers have played so far this year. But the Jets might be longer shots to win than the spread makes it seem.