The oddsmakers listed over at SB Nation’s odds page say that Penn State is a big, big dog against OSU. 5dimes and Bodog both have the Buckeyes as 18-point underdogs.
Even if Penn State doesn’t end up winning, they could easily beat that spread. True, the Buckeyes have six wins by 18 points or more so far this season, but none of those were against a team as good as the Nittany Lions. OSU also won by only 11 against Illinois and 12 against Miami. Meanwhile, Penn State is coming off three straight wins and appears to have the worst stretch of its season (the back-to-back losses against Iowa and Illinois) behind it. The PSU quarterback controversy might not be resolved anytime soon, but as long as Matt McGloin is in charge, it’s hard to see why the Lions should be rated this poorly. A lot could happen on Saturday (the Nittany Lions certainly could lose by 40), but until it does, it sounds like the oddsmakers might be underestimating Penn State a bit. Adam’s prediction of an 11-point Buckeye win sounds a bit better to me.